marcodede Cores Rurais from Flickr

Venture Capital Method: Valuation Considering Schedule Slip in the Startup

Cores Rurais from Flickr

To start this post, I recommend you to read my last post:

http://www.chimkan.com/2009/05/05/venture-capital-method-valuation-considering-granting-stock-options-to-management-team/

Now, imagine that at the start of year 3, John project that his startup will not meet the financial targets, but not until the end of 8 year. What share should Ada seek today? And what the equity stake will round 2 investors seek?

So, it means that the financial schedule will slip for 3 years.

Observation 1: Ada will be able to change her investment because she already has done it. (She invested $ 10M for 45.3% of the company).

Observation 2: Now that Ada’s investment lasts 8 years instead of 5 years, what is her Internal Rate of Return*?
*IRR: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_rate_of_return
We can say that IRR is the opposite calculation of the Rate of Return.

First, you have to lay out the investment in years:

Year 1: -$5M (how much she needed to pay)
Year 2: 0 (No money given to her from the company)
Year 3: 0 (No money given to her from the company)
Year 4: 0 (No money given to her from the company)
Year 5: 0 (No money given to her from the company)
Year 6: 0 (No money given to her from the company)
Year 7: 0 (No money given to her from the company)
Year 8: +$53.56M (She should receives 42.18% of the total value of the company $127M)

You can use this formula in Excel >>> =IRR([ARRAY OF THE CASH FLOW])

Ada’s IRR is 23% instead of 50%.

The new investors will want:

$ 4Mx(1.3)^5=$14.85M

It means they will want:

$14.85M/$127M =  11.69% of the equity. The $127M is the value of the company in 7 years discounted the management shares, look the previous posts for more information.

To calculate the number of shares:

Let’s pick up the total shares from John’s and Ada’s:

1,823,636

Let’s calculate how many shares they have to issue to the new investors:

X/(1,823,636+X) = 11.69%

X = 0.1169X + 159750

X = 241,403 new shares

The price is given as this:

P/S = $ 4M/241,403 new shares = $16.56/share

The new investors should pay $16.56/share for 241,403 new shares of the company.

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3 Trackbacks

  1. By Venture Capital Method: Valuation Considering Schedule Slip in the … « Venture Capital on 7 May &Thu, 07 May 2009 09:31:13 +000013q0000002009;09 at 9:31 am

    [...] Go­ here to­ s­ee the o­ri­gi­n­al­: Ven­­tu­re Ca­p­i­ta­l Method­: Va­lu­a­ti&#1… [...]

  2. By All posts related to Venture Capital Method! | Chim Kan on 8 May &Fri, 08 May 2009 02:29:50 +000050q0000002009;09 at 2:29 am

    [...] Venture Capital Method: Valuation Considering Schedule Slip in the Startup [...]

  3. By Intermezzo, my life in Canada and Ivey – December 2009 | Chim Kan on 1 Dec &Tue, 01 Dec 2009 19:26:48 +000048q0000002009;09 at 7:26 pm

    [...] What happens when the schedule slips in startup? [...]

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