There is a news from the CNET that tells that Smartphones and low-cost handsets will keep dominating the wireless market. The post tells that despite the fact of economic downturn, demand for smartphone remained high and this category grew 27% compared to the same quarter a year ago. Also, smartphones have been the fastest growing segment of the mobile industry. Moreover, the prices for smartphones have been decreasing steadily in the last 5 years.

In my experience, smartphones were quite expensive. For instance, Palm Treo 700p was launched on 2005 and its price was around $650.00 with a two year contract. Now, you can get an iPhone with 8G with two year contract for about $99.00. I am not even counting the fact that we can do more things in the current generation of phones and we have more services than in the past.

Palm Treo 700p with two year contract around $650.00

From Gartner report from 2008, Market Share: Smartphones, Worldwide, 4Q08 and 2008, the Global sales of smartphones in 2008 reached 139.3 million devices, up 14% compared to 2007 . The smartphone market is definitely growing. It is expected that with the economic rebound, people will upgrade their mobile phones and they may buy more smartphone if the service costs and the phone become cheaper.

Looking at the Table 4, Worldwide: Smartphone Sales to End Users by Operating System, 2008 from Gartner, we can see that in spite of the 13.9 growth for the overall smartphone market, Research in Motion and Mac OS X grew really well with 96.7% and 245.7% respectively.

Smartphone market landscape 2007 - 2008

This type of growth is similar to what happened with the PC industry during the 80s and 90s.

As you can read these excerpts:

Chip makers post record results bolstered by booming PC sales

HOME COMPUTERS, 1994

PC Sales Over Holidays Rose 33% From '93 Level, 1994

Strong Gains For U.S. PC's, 1995

As you can see 1994 and beyond were the years when the PC industry had the greatest growth in history. The growth relied on the consumer market. While B2B has always been the initial driver of the PC industry, the B2C market was essential for the popularization of the personal computers.

Also, late in the 1997, the PC manufacturers started to sell PC in the sub-$1,000 category. This happened at the same time with the first big internet growth (Yahoo!, Amazon.com, etc.) and the high adoption of internet. In the following graph from ITU, the internet user’s rate grew 70% (the blue line from 97 and 98).

Internet users per 100 inhabitants 1997-2007

Also, the sales of PC grew immensely with the introduction of PC that cost less than $1,000.

Sub-$1,000 PC sales soar

As you can see from 25-Years PC Anniversary Statistics , the number of units of PC sold jumped from 5.7 million in 1981-1985 to 1,540 million in 2001-2006. That is a 27 times growth!

25-Year PC Anniversary Statistics

25-Year PC Anniversary Statistics Chart

Although, we do not have the power to see the future, there are some patterns from the PC industry that shows us that the smartphone industry will also have a spectacular growth. Definitely, there are differences, such as the number of operating systems and platform and also the fact that in the wireless industry, the manufactures and the carriers have a big say in the definition of the market, but undoubtedly, smartphone will growth.

And if the smartphone market grows as big as the PC industry, there will be a lot business opportunities and innovation.