I met with David Chabot who is one of the partners from Embrase, a business consulting firm that helps startups to grow, and I highly recommend their services for those more technical focused entrepreneurs. In my experience, a lot of programmers and engineers have great products but they do not have a very strong marketing or go-to-market strategy.

Visit: http://www.embrase.com

I met with Barry Pâquet and I was very impressed and amazed by his story of how he started up his company. He was working as a consultant for another software company and eventually, he had a great opportunity to come up with a product that was superior from the one his client was using. Then, from that one sales, he built his portfolio of clients and making money.

I always like to listen to how people become entrepreneurs and in my experience, most people became entrepreneurs serendipitously.

His company, Quantum Whisper, offers a nifty solution for product development teams scrambling around coding and user feedback. I used to funnel users feedback to the product team and I knew how messy things can get. From the product team perspective, the challenge is to link the user feedback to the specific code or feature in a solid way. Most of us just uses a kind of spreadsheet or paper to take notes between the bug and the code related to it. However, if the project gets too big, the paper or spreadsheet solution can become very overwhelming.

The solution he has is  a platform that links users feedback directly into the development side, so no programmer nor product manager has to do the dirty work of linking those two things every time. This is a great value proposition and I bet it is going to grow a lot.

Kwedit is a strange name for a payment company. This is a startup that offers a new form of payment to social and interactive games that allows people to buy virtual goods. The strange thing is that it allows people to “promise” to pay for a virtual good and the user can pay the promise later with a bar code in a 7eleven store.

Even though this seems to be a great innovation, the idea of printing a bar code and pay it in a retail store is nothing new to date. The strong differentiator of Kwedit is the idea of promising to pay later. I wonder what would happen if everybody promises to pay but none of the actually pays anything. I believe that the CFO of the company would be scare of the increase in the account payable of the balance sheet.

This type of payment for virtual goods reminded me of Habbo Hotel. Habbo is a Finnish company that started its virtual goods operations before the internet boom. It is probably the first company to have a business model based on selling virtual goodies to users. Interesting enough, Habbo targeted in a very narrow market segment. Its targets on teenagers that love to chat in pixel-lated environment.

Habbo and its many forms of payments.

Habbo offers 7eleven payments too. OK, they sell pre-paid cards and Kwedit doesn’t.

In my humble opinion, Sulake could have grown much more if it had focused on the virtual good market as a whole market instead of just that niche teenager segment. It could have created a strategic plan of reaching all types of games and services based on virtual goods. Well, other companies grew upon this model and they are newer than Habbo. C’est tant pis.

The smartphone industry is moving to follow the same path of the personal computer (PC). Both industries have a lot of manufacturers. For example, Dell for computers and Motorola for smartphone. PC and smartphones have operating systems. For PC, the major OS is Windows and for smartphone, there are more than one major operating system. There are iPhone OS, Blackberry and Android (Google). It seems that there is a platform war among the manufacturers and Google. Imagine that a company can implement a system that is used by most of the cellphone manufacturers. This company will be able to control the smartphone industry, just as Microsoft controls the PC industry.

Nexus One Homepage

Google launched its official cellphone with Android operating system today. It is entering the smartphone market by providing a free OS to cellphone and aligning with manufacturer to provide a better user experience through better applications and superior hardware.

Google may reach a dominance in the smartphone market if it can have more manufacturers using its OS. However, manufacturers are not going to rely 100% in one software company. At the same time, most industry players do not have core competency in software development, thus they may rely on Google Android this time.

Meanwhile, iPhone is growing and Blackberry is responding to the new threats in the market. Nokia and other cellphones company are losing ground. It is an interesting time for this fast changing industry.

My 2 cents.

The Science of Managing Search Ads

There is an amazing article about Google AdWords from the New York Times.

It illustrates the management of an online campaign in AdWords for a company called Tiny Prints. This company advertisers on Google and gets a substantial part of its revenue and customers from AdWords. The company has stopped advertising for a day, trying to decrease its acquisition cost, but it ended up losing customers and allowing competitors to grow. Its management team decided to advertise again and it started to manage its campaign more closely, balancing the ads spending, competitors’ bids and profits.

The article gives an accurate view of how advertisers live with AdWords. To have success in that platform, you need to have quick decision, money and knowledge to use this powerful tool.

Read more here: The Science of Managing Search Ads

It is hard to make money on the Internet. Currently, there are two famous ways to monetize on the Internet: advertising and e-commerce. In the advertising side, we have Google AdWords, Yahoo Marketing or Microsoft Advertising. These companies make money by having big audience that attracts advertisers’ money. For instance, Google gets money when users click ads. In the e-commerce side, we have eBay, Amazon, Newegg, etc. They gain profit from buying low and selling high price. They have strong brands and first-mover advantage. It is almost impossible to create a company to compete against these behemoths.

However, that did not stop entrepreneurs to come up with more startups. A lot of entrepreneurs created other viable ways to make money on the internet. One of the most interesting way is the Make-Your-Own-Stuff Web 2.0 companies. They are characterized by Ajax site structure with big buttons and fonts and crowdsourcing or customization features in their websites. They make money by selling cool things that a lot of people like. Some companies sell t-shirts, mugs or print arts for your iPhone.

I’m going to present four companies that fit in this Make-Your-Own-Stuff Web 2.0 category:

Threadless home page 2009 winter

Threadless is a company that sells crowdsourcing designed t-shirts (from Chicago). Simply, people send their t-shirt designs; other people vote for the best and cool designs; Threadless make t-shirts from those winning designs to the mass. People buy them. [This is a classic successful web 2.0 company that relies on crowdsourcing and social interaction.]

Gelaskins Canada Startup Homepage 2009

Gelaskins is a Canadian company that sells cellphone and other electronic gadget special skin protection with very interesting design. They have a lot of designers that create cool designs for all those cellphone protectors. The protectors are made of a special plastic-rubber easy to remove and glue that not only make your iPhone or Blackberry more beautiful, but also protect your gadget from scratches. [Great potential to grow.]

Scarfmaker an Estonian startup

Scarfmaker.com is a startup from Estonia and it allows users to customize scarf with their own designs. I think the idea is great and it may grow very very fast. Currently, I think the company is backed by Swedish VCs. I will be watching the developing of this company.

Crazy Custom Caps Home page 2009

Crazy Customs Caps is a typical company that offers customized caps. There are many many companies that allow people to create customized caps but not many of them set up a website. Although, the idea of this company may not be original, the business framework of allowing users to customize their products is definitely catching on in the web 2.0 landscape.

All these companies belong to the e-commerce category of money making website, but they are able to compete against big players because they have a special value proposition to customers. Most of them offer unique items created by the crowd or by user’s customization of the product. Interesting niche market.

There is a news from the CNET that tells that Smartphones and low-cost handsets will keep dominating the wireless market. The post tells that despite the fact of economic downturn, demand for smartphone remained high and this category grew 27% compared to the same quarter a year ago. Also, smartphones have been the fastest growing segment of the mobile industry. Moreover, the prices for smartphones have been decreasing steadily in the last 5 years.

In my experience, smartphones were quite expensive. For instance, Palm Treo 700p was launched on 2005 and its price was around $650.00 with a two year contract. Now, you can get an iPhone with 8G with two year contract for about $99.00. I am not even counting the fact that we can do more things in the current generation of phones and we have more services than in the past.

Palm Treo 700p with two year contract around $650.00

From Gartner report from 2008, Market Share: Smartphones, Worldwide, 4Q08 and 2008, the Global sales of smartphones in 2008 reached 139.3 million devices, up 14% compared to 2007 . The smartphone market is definitely growing. It is expected that with the economic rebound, people will upgrade their mobile phones and they may buy more smartphone if the service costs and the phone become cheaper.

Looking at the Table 4, Worldwide: Smartphone Sales to End Users by Operating System, 2008 from Gartner, we can see that in spite of the 13.9 growth for the overall smartphone market, Research in Motion and Mac OS X grew really well with 96.7% and 245.7% respectively.

Smartphone market landscape 2007 - 2008

This type of growth is similar to what happened with the PC industry during the 80s and 90s.

As you can read these excerpts:

Chip makers post record results bolstered by booming PC sales

HOME COMPUTERS, 1994

PC Sales Over Holidays Rose 33% From '93 Level, 1994

Strong Gains For U.S. PC's, 1995

As you can see 1994 and beyond were the years when the PC industry had the greatest growth in history. The growth relied on the consumer market. While B2B has always been the initial driver of the PC industry, the B2C market was essential for the popularization of the personal computers.

Also, late in the 1997, the PC manufacturers started to sell PC in the sub-$1,000 category. This happened at the same time with the first big internet growth (Yahoo!, Amazon.com, etc.) and the high adoption of internet. In the following graph from ITU, the internet user’s rate grew 70% (the blue line from 97 and 98).

Internet users per 100 inhabitants 1997-2007

Also, the sales of PC grew immensely with the introduction of PC that cost less than $1,000.

Sub-$1,000 PC sales soar

As you can see from 25-Years PC Anniversary Statistics , the number of units of PC sold jumped from 5.7 million in 1981-1985 to 1,540 million in 2001-2006. That is a 27 times growth!

25-Year PC Anniversary Statistics

25-Year PC Anniversary Statistics Chart

Although, we do not have the power to see the future, there are some patterns from the PC industry that shows us that the smartphone industry will also have a spectacular growth. Definitely, there are differences, such as the number of operating systems and platform and also the fact that in the wireless industry, the manufactures and the carriers have a big say in the definition of the market, but undoubtedly, smartphone will growth.

And if the smartphone market grows as big as the PC industry, there will be a lot business opportunities and innovation.

Koenigsegg's car with Saab logo

I’ve been following many news related to the GM’s sale of Saab to Koenigsegg and I’m very curious about the outcome of this situation.

I searched Google to see if there was any news of small companies buying big companies and I couldn’t find any results to that, instead I found many news of big companies buying smaller firms.  Then, I made some changes in my query and I still didn’t get any results of small companies buying a bigger one. However, I’m sure that there are a bunch of history of small companies buying big troubled ones or at least their brands.

Two examples:

• Infogrames buying Atari, read more at Wikipedia.
• Rackable Systems buying Silicon Graphics, read more at Wikipedia.

As in this little research, most companies bought the troubling ones because of the brand. It is quite hard to see a small company buying a larger one because usually, small companies do not have capital to buy any company at all.

That is why it is fascinating to see the merger of Koenigsegg and Saab. Koenisgsegg sold only 20 cars around $1.2 million each last year. Meanwhile, Saab sold over 5o,000 cars units during the same period. Koenisgsegg is receiving many many support to acquire Saab. First, it has $600m loan from the European Investment Bank guaranteed by the Swedish government, and a dowry from GM in the form of platforms, powertrains and about $500m in cash and other assets.

Then, Saab’s Creditors agreed to write down 75% of their debt!

This merger looks more like this: GM and the Swedish Government “hired” Koenisgsegg to clean up or infuse a new life into the company.

I would love to see how successful this ‘marriage’ will be. Some cars enthusiasts’ sites say that it would be great to have Koenigsegg technology and hype infused into the Saab products. I wonder what Koenigsegg is thinking about this. Maybe, it would be great for them to have a platform where they can mass produce their extremely cool cars to the world.

However, there are many risks for this strategies. How could Koenigsegg adapt its designs into the production line of Saab and how the small Koenigsegg’s team can hope to manage the bigger and fatter Saab management and company’s structure?

I wish them luck!

News related to Saab and Koenigsegg sale:

Unstable Storm – Economist.com
Saab’s Creditors Agree to Sharply Write Down Debt
Koenigsegg buys Saab: The automotive gods may smile upon us once again
Google News: Saab & Koenigsegg
512-HP Koenigsegg Quant Solar-Electric 4-Seater To Enter Production
Geneva 2009: NLV Quant by Koenigsegg

Mr. & Mrs. Pump from Flickr

Summary:

The number of new funds focused on bankrolling early-stage startups appears to be growing.

Data from The Deal and other sources that focus on venture capital concluded that in the last six weeks that about $1.2 billion has been raised by firms for dedicated venture capital investment, with another $3.3 billion for funds-of-funds that will back new venture capital (and private equity) vehicles in the future.

VCs are planning to concentrate on finding IT startups with limited capital needs rather than late-stage companies that may need significant sums to ramp up production or to weather a downturn in business until the recession is over.

It’s not only entrepreneurs targeting the next generation of startups: Venture capital firms Spark Capital and Sequoia Capital each made moves toward increasing their funding, specifically for seed-stage companies, in late March.

Read more at: http://www.thedeal.com/dealscape/2009/05/new_venture_funds_focus_on_the.php

My comments:

1. Comparing the latest bad news related to VC industry with this one, it seems that some problem may arise.
2. VC firms are raising a lot of money, they will need to invest in many more companies.
3. Many firms with more money means that entrepreneurs may drive up the valuation.
4. However, given the economic crisis, people are more conservative in taking risky ventures (less people going for entrepreneurship).
5. The end result may that the current rate of return from VC firms may stay the same, but the amount of deals may shrink.
6. There is also a bad news from Obama’s new financial revamp which may limit the size or the freedom of how VC may work.

A new study by the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, Right-Sizing the U.S. Venture Capital Industry, states that venture capital industry’s return is under performing because of the current size of the industry. It says that by reducing the it, this industry may increase its return.

The logic is that the VC firms won’t have that much money to make high valuations in startups, so the return will be higher naturally.

Kauffman says The US VC industry must shrink

This report is in tune with what I am reading from The Money of Invention, How Venture Capital Creates New Wealth: Paul A. Gompers, Josh Lerner. Josh Lerner’s book states clearly that if the supply of money from limited partner is high, while the demand of investment from startups is the same, the consequence is lower return.

This is incredible.

You can read more about the Kauffman’s paper here: http://www.kauffman.org/newsroom/venture-capital-industry-must-shrink-to-be-an-economic-force-kauffman-foundation-study-finds.aspx

Negotiation - Time, Information and Power

There are three main variables in negotiation: time, information and power.

Time is important because the lack of it can cause great damage for the person or organization.

Imagine that two venture capital firms have a great interest in a startup company. They know that one of them will close a deal tomorrow. So, the most important factor in the negotiation is time. Who is going to have more time to think and negotiate?

Information is important when it can greatly affect the value or the conditions of the deal.

Let’s think that a biotechnology startup has a phase IV (read more about clinical trial) drug waiting for approval. A private equity firm is very interested in the company. It knows that if the company succeeds in the trial, the valuation of the company will be astronomical and it will not be able to get a good deal with the company. However, if the drug does not pass the trial, the startup will not have great value at all.

In this case, information is extremely important for the negotiation.

Lastly, power is also extremely important. Usually, one side has more resources and it will use this in the bargaining process.

A very typical example of today, MBA students graduate and can’t find jobs. Those who get offer do not have power to negotiate better salary and bonus because the company has the money and has the power to hire someone or not.

Risk is a tool in negotiation that can help you to take advantange from the other side of the table. It depends on two factors:

- Circumstances

- Risk attitude from the negotiator

Risk can be used to ask for bold concession from your partner. However, if the negotiator is risk-aversed, the chance is that the other side will take advantage and try to ask for more concession by aggressive moves.

I’m posting this news because it is very impressive this merger of two most important food company in Brazil. It is going to create some market concentration concern. At the same time, it shows the M&A market potential of this country.

Sadia and Perdigão are forming one of the biggest food company in Brazil. It will be called Brasil Foods.

Sadia and Perdigão Merging to Brasil Foods

After a disastrous finance decision that Sadia made about currency investment last year, losing roughly $ 2 billion dollars, it had decided to merger with Perdigão, a similar size food company.

One of the things they will start to do is the release of  US$ 2 billion of new shares of the new company. The money will be used to decrease the company’s debt to US$ 3 billion from US$ 5 billion.

The new company will be the tenth biggest food company in the Americas. 

Brazil Foods will have over 120.000 employees with EBITDA of R$ 2.4 billion.

One of the biggest concern as a consumer is the possibility of monopoly. Both of the are strong players in the consumer food market in Brazil. They have over 70% of the frozen food market.

This is a very good example of the M&A market landscape in Brazil.

Many of you may not like Microsoft, but most people are sure that Microsoft’s CEO, Steven Ballmer, has a strong leadership presence in the company and in the market.

There is an interesting short interview from New York Time with Steven. He talks about leadership, job interview, what he is looking for at Microsoft and he gave some recommendations for b-schools.

Read his interview at: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/17/business/17corner.html?pagewanted=1&ref=technology

In many text books and even some Harvard cases, you can see that venture capitalists ask for a lower discount rate for later stage startups.

This can be represented here:

Main Reasons For a High Discount Rate From VC (made by chimkan.com)

The reason why the discount rate decreases over time is the increasing information about the company’s performance. Not only, the mature startups have some historical data to support their future performance, the startups already have customers and some kind of revenue.

A little bit more of explanation

The Base Rate is not something that venture capitalist nor do entrepreneurs have control. It is mainly influenced by the FED’s basic interest rate. If FED lower its interest rate, all other investments will be more attractive because their return will be automatically higher.

Liquidity increases over time. When the company is getting more and more famous, more people will be willing to buy stocks from the company. This increase in interest will eventually reach the IPO stage when the venture capitalist will reap the investment’s reward.

Value added from the venture capitalist decreases over time because the company will have already established a senior management capable of taking care of itself. The venture capitalist will shift to a more strategic and big-picture command of the company in the boards of directors.

Cash Flow Adjustment decreases over time because venture capital firms make money by selling their share of the company in an IPO or an acquisition. When that event approaches, there are more information about the company and the market, so the discount rate for this issue decreases too.

These are the main reasons why the discount rate given by a VC decreases over time. If I were an entrepreneur, I would use this information in my deal negotiation with a VC firm.

Launch Silicon Valley 2009 Website

When:  Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Where: Microsoft Campus in Mountain View, CA

It is an event to showcase the latest startups from the information technology, mobility, security, digital media, next generation internet, life sciences and clean energy industries.

Entrepreneurs who are interested should send an Executive Summary of no more than 2 pages to Launchsv@svase.org by latest May 8, 2009.

You can read more about the event here: http://launchsiliconvalley.org/index.htm

Facebook valuation again...

Some highlights:

Facebook chief executive Mark Zuckerberg just had a board-level conversation about possibly accepting money at a $4 billion valuation, but decided against doing so…

Also, the company has more than $200 million in the bank, which is enough to cover its costs for up to two years…

 TechCrunch says it hears Facebook also received investment offers from two private equity firms that value the company at $2 billion. However, Facebook internally is valuing itself at $4 billion. And if Zuckerberg rejected the $4 billion offer, he’s certainly not going to be interested in a $2 billion offer…

Read more at : 

http://venturebeat.com/2009/04/15/facebook-rejects-funding-at-4-billion-valuation-may-not-raise-more

So, it seems that the $15 billion valuation was certainly overrated.

Another news:

…one potential investor submitted a term sheet for a valuation in the neighborhood of $2 billion.

What we’ve heard: Facebook stock trades privately at between a $2 billion and $3 billion valuation. That’s consistent with the numbers that everybody else is tossing around. And we’ve known for a while that when the ConnectU vs. Facebook legal spat was settled, Facebook valued itself around $3.7 billion.

What’s new this time around is that reports indicate Zuckerberg is extremely adamant about rejecting investment cash at a valuation he considers too low. When Facebook took a $240 million stake from Microsoft in November 2007, the investment was at a $15 billion valuation. Since then, it’s become clear that it was a preferred-stock deal and that Facebook’s true valuation has never been that high. But from what it sounds like, Zuckerberg would like it to get up there.

It was long before the massive Microsoft stake, after all, that Yahoo offered to buy the social network for $1 billion.

Read more at:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13577_3-10220845-36.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-20

Load Impact - check how well you website can handle heavy workload @ http://loadimpact.com/

Seedcamp – check an entrepreneur event where you can meet with a lot of interestign people with interesting ideas @ http://seedcamp.com/

Chocolate Cookies – I made some cookies today with this recipe @ http://www.joyofbaking.com/ChocolateCookies.html

A Run - an Ivey student blog about his preparation for the MBA @ http://totalenthu.blogspot.com/

Ivey Entrepreneurship – Ivey’s blog about entrepreneurship in Canada and elsewhere @ http://iveyentrepreneur.blogspot.com/

Job seekers guide for venture capital – Rotman Business School’s listing about interesting information for those who are going to become VC someday @ http://www.rotman.utoronto.ca/bic/CCC/targetVenture.htm

Introduction to Financial Accounting – Online course (UC Berkeley Extension) @ http://www.unex.berkeley.edu/cat/course328.html

Introduction to Managerial Accounting - Online course (UC Berkeley Extension) @ http://www.unex.berkeley.edu/cat/course542.html

Essentials of Business - Online course (UC Berkeley Extension) @ http://www.unex.berkeley.edu/cat/course330.html

Business Writing Review - Online course (UC Berkeley Extension) @ http://www.unex.berkeley.edu/cat/course91.html

Business Valuation - Online course (UC Berkeley Extension) @ http://www.unex.berkeley.edu/cat/course123.html

General Psychology - Online course (UC Berkeley Extension) @ http://www.unex.berkeley.edu/cat/course1467.html

Introduction to Writing Fiction - Online course (UC Berkeley Extension) @ http://www.unex.berkeley.edu/cat/course180.html

Introduction to Capital Budgeting - Online course (UCLA Extension) @ https://www.uclaextension.edu/r/Course.aspx?reg=U8561

Essentials of Business Plan Writing (Online) - Online course (UCLA Extension) @ https://www.uclaextension.edu/r/Course.aspx?reg=U8526

Elements of Corporate Finance (Online) - Online course (UCLA Extension) @ https://www.uclaextension.edu/r/Course.aspx?reg=U8370

Introduction to Mergers and Acquisitions (Online) - Online course (UCLA Extension) @ https://www.uclaextension.edu/r/Course.aspx?reg=U8375

Fundamentals of Business Administration and Management (Online) - Online course (UCLA Extension) @ https://www.uclaextension.edu/r/Course.aspx?reg=U8639

Planning for Success - Online course (UCLA Extension) @ https://www.uclaextension.edu/r/Course.aspx?reg=U8549

Fundamentals of Business Strategy - Online course (UCLA Extension) @ https://www.uclaextension.edu/r/Course.aspx?reg=U8547

Introduction to Boards -  Online course (UCLA Extension) @ https://www.uclaextension.edu/r/Course.aspx?reg=U8560

Entrepreneurial Marketing -  Online course (UCLA Extension) @ https://www.uclaextension.edu/r/Course.aspx?reg=U8559

Introduction to Venture Capital -  Online course (UCLA Extension) @ https://www.uclaextension.edu/r/Course.aspx?reg=U8373

I was searching for anything from the net and I found an interesting introductory deck about venture capital. If you are interested in the basics of VC, this is a good starting point. It also has a more “equational” view of the venture capital method.

Intro to Finance& Valuation - This is a lecture on valuation and some business formation issues from http://www.buec.udel.edu/jones/Courses/VentureCapital/index.html.